Quick Navigation

So, are we in a bull market? Short answer: I believe we're in the early innings of one, but not the kind that's straightforward. After sitting through 2008, 2020, and the crypto winters, I've learned that most people only realize they're in a bull market when it's half over. And that's exactly why I wrote this — to help you see the signs before the crowd does.

What Defines a Bull Market?

Technically, a bull market is when asset prices rise 20% from recent lows, often accompanied by strong investor confidence. But I've found that definition way too simplistic. A real bull market has three layers:

  • Economic expansion: GDP growing, unemployment low, corporate earnings rising.
  • Broad participation: It's not just tech stocks; small caps, commodities, and international markets also rally.
  • Behavioral shift: Investors move from fear to greed. And boy, have I seen that shift happen overnight sometimes.

I remember in early 2009, after the crash, everyone was terrified. But the market bottomed in March and started climbing. By the time people realized it was a bull, the S&P 500 had already gained 50%.

Early Signals I've Learned to Watch

Instead of waiting for the 20% confirmation, I look at these leading indicators:

IndicatorWhat It Tells MeCurrent Reading (Early 2025)
Breadth (advancers vs decliners)Are most stocks rising? Bull markets have broad participation.Mixed—large caps leading, small caps lagging.
Credit spreadsTightening spreads = risk appetite returning.Narrowing, which is bullish.
IPO and SPAC activityNew issuance booms in late bull, but early signs like deal pipeline.Picking up, but not frothy.
Put/call ratioLow ratio = bullish sentiment.Moderate, not extreme.

None of these alone is conclusive. But when they align, I pay attention. Right now, the signal is mixed — not a clear “all clear,” but definitely not a bear.

Current Market Clues: Where Are We?

Let's talk about what I'm seeing today, early 2025. The S&P 500 hit new highs last month. Tech earnings are strong — especially AI-related names. But the yield curve is still inverted, which historically predicts recession. So how can we be in a bull market with an inverted curve?

My take: The yield curve has been inverted for over a year without a recession yet. It's possible this cycle is different — the economy is more services-driven, and rate hikes are already pausing. I suspect we're in a “bull market on wire” — hanging in there but fragile.

I visited a friend's startup last week; they just raised a Series A at a decent valuation. Two years ago, no one would touch early-stage deals. That's real-life evidence that risk appetite is back.

Common Mistakes I See in Early Bull Phases

Having been through a few cycles, I notice the same errors repeating:

  • Waiting for a pullback to buy: You'll miss the biggest gains. I missed 10% of the 2009 rally waiting for a “better entry.”
  • Overconcentrating in winning sectors: Everyone piles into the hot stocks (AI now). But when rotation happens, they get crushed.
  • Ignoring risk management: Bull markets lull you into thinking it's easy. I always keep some cash and stop-losses.
  • Selling too early: Afraid of a crash? I sold half my positions in 2013 thinking the rally was over. It went on for two more years.

How to Position Your Portfolio Now

If we are in a bull market (early stage), here's what I'm doing and what I recommend:

  1. Stay invested but diversified: Don't go all-in on tech. Balance with value, international, and small caps.
  2. Add tactical exposure to cyclicals: Industrials, materials, and energy tend to do well in early bull phases.
  3. Keep 10-15% cash: So you can buy dips without panic.
  4. Use options for income: Selling puts on stocks you want to own can generate extra yield.
  5. Review your portfolio monthly: Things change fast. I rebalance when my allocation drifts more than 5%.
Quick checklist for your portfolio:
- Do I have exposure to small caps?
- Am I too heavy in one sector?
- Do I have a plan if the market drops 10%?
- Am I watching earnings growth acceleration?

Frequently Asked Questions

How can I tell if we are in a bull market without relying on lagging indicators?
Stop looking at the S&P 500 only. Check the Advance-Decline line, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average, and insider buying. When insiders are buying heavily, it's a strong signal that the bull is real.
I missed the rally from the bottom — should I wait for a correction to enter?
No. Time in the market beats timing. If you wait, you might never get a 10% pullback. Instead, use dollar-cost averaging: invest a fixed amount each week over the next three months. That way you capture more upside even if the market keeps climbing.
Are we in a bull market for cryptocurrencies too?
Crypto has its own cycle, but it often correlates with risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin is up 80% from its 2022 low. That's a technical bull. But be careful — altcoins are highly speculative. Stick to top coins if you want to play the trend.
What's the biggest risk to this bull market thesis?
Recession. If unemployment spikes or corporate earnings collapse, the bull could stall. I'm watching the Conference Board Leading Index and jobless claims. So far, they're not flashing red, but they're closer than they were six months ago.

This article is based on my personal market analysis and experience. Always do your own research or consult a financial advisor.